Mt. Whitney Portal Store & Hostel Forums General Mt. Whitney Portal Store Message Board Percentage of hikers that summit Whitney

Driving back from our day hike Monday night, a topic that came up was what percentage of Whitney hikers end up at the summit.

Several websites (list below) state that 30,000 people attempt to hike Mt. Whitney every year, but only 10,000 actually summit. Is this number accurate? Based on the number of unused permits each year, wouldn't it be more accurate to say that 'out of a possible 30000 people, 10000 summit? I'm guessing as a result of the 30,000 possible attempts and 10000 'successful' attempts lots of people say that only 30% of hikers summit. This number seems really low.

This study, which was done to see how prevalant AMS is, says that 81% of the people interviewed summitted, which sounds a bit more realistic (but maybe a little high).
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18799993


Any thoughts?




List of websites referencing 30k attempts:

http://beachsteens.com/mark/mountwhitney.html
https://sites.google.com/site/coffeehikers/about-us
http://www.allmammoth.com/mountains/mount_whitney.php
http://climbing.about.com/b/2009/09/03/climbing-mount-whitney-highest-mountain-in-the-lower-48.htm
http://pweb.jps.net/~prichins/mwemma.htm
http://timberlinetrails.net/WhitneyMain.html
http://articles.ocregister.com/2007-04-16/cities/24710221_1_hikes-summit-altitude
http://www.mtdemocrat.com/archived-stories/this-is-a-valuable-book-for-mt-whitney-hikers/
http://pweb.jps.net/~prichins/mwguide.htm

This is the problem with selection bias: How do you measure something? It is easy to measure the number of permits issued (although, you don't know how many people ACTUALLY went, some bail at the last moment, and some pirates don't get a permit), and how do you measure the success rate? Some have used the number of signatures in the book, but some don't sign.

The study had drawbacks, although it had the virtue of actually talking to people in person, one-by-one. Some refused, however. Some sneaked by off trail, some on the old trail, some in the middle of the night (although I'd speculate that most of those would be more experienced people for the first two, and thus, would have a higher success rate, but thats a wild-ass guess, and have no idea of numbers, although not large.)

But the beautiful style of the study, it's lyrical prose-almost poetic, set the bar pretty high in terms of establishing some actual real information, instead of just speculation, which seemed to be all that was out there before. But, uh, ahem, I'm probably biased.

I appreciate your input - thanks for taking the time to reply.

I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as Ken.....so mine is antedocal.

I think 30% may be about right. I've been on the summit with 40 people and on the summit with 3 people. I would say that most people make it to Trail Camp. But, at Trail Camp, things change a bit. Large groups are whittled down to smaller groups. Some groups give up. Last trip, one kid was vomiting and his entire group was making a decision on what to do. Some hikers goals are Trail Camp. Many people make it part way up the switchbacks, but those are a real measure of what you WANT to do. On my last visit, I only remember one person making it to the summit out of several I passed. I waited a while up there and then didn't catch anyone going up on the way back. Also, I passed several people who had made it to withing 1.5 of the summit and just couldn't do it. The percentages would be higher, but when you add a group, even of three or more, safety of the individuals in the group are the most important, especially at 13,500.

30%..... sounds about right to me. Thoughts?

Chevy, I'm not sure if you connected the dots of my little joke, but I'm one of the authors of the study that you quoted.

I'd have to go back and do digging, but I'm under the impression that the number that the Park/Forest service has cited is higher than 30% for signatures in the book/permits issued, but don't have it handy. I'm sure you could call them and get it if you are really interested. They do track both yearly.

I did catch that... at least that's what I figured anyway when you said you were biased.

I guess we were thinking that the rate was higher than 30% because 7/8 in our group summited, and it seems that most that we saw along the way also made it. There were a lot of people headed down when we were getting close to the summit, lots on the summit while we were there, and more headed up when we were headed down.

For those that don't summit, I also wonder why prevents them the most often... the weather? AMS? not being in good enough shape?

I did not reach the summit in three of may attempts. Several years ago, the first time I ever tried Whitney I started feeling bad with about 10 switchbacks left near Trail Crest a about 10 a.m. I had made good time but was slowing but I also felt rushed. I had read advice that if your couldn't summit by 2:00 that you should turn around. It was perfect weather, I should have just stopped for a while and I would have been fine.

The second, no summit was the time I stayed at Trail Camp. That time was AMS. I had a headache that wouldn't go away. So in the morning I turned around.

The third time, I was in bad shape because I had fought back problems for the previous 9 months and wanted to see how far I could make it. I spent time at Outpost Camp and had fun, but wasn't really even expecting to summit.

So I am below 30% just myself. But the thing is that I have has a blast every time I have been on the Whitney trail. Not everyone that gets a permit considers it a failure to miss the summit. I consider everyone of my trips a success. So whether your summit percentage is 25%, 30% , 50% or 100% the success rate is how much you have enjoyed yourself and what you have learned about nature and about yourself.

Calihawk, how true however you did not disclose your pep: training, use of diamox, alternate times you started (a.m. vs. midnight). Many unknown variables that put you below 30%... BUT never be defeated when it comes to enjoyin the journey. HN

I agree. I plan on hiking up to Trail Camp and possibly Trail Crest with my wife at some point. On the way up Monday, we were mostly in the dark and focused on the summit. We didn't enjoy the scenery as much as we should have. On the way down, my focus was on getting back to the car so that I could stop hiking.

There would be a big difference between those who attempt to day hike Whitney and those who take 3 days. I believe most people who take 3 days will successfully summit, unless nasty weather prevents it. Day hikers success rate would be less. I think 70% who attempt to summit in a day hike is a good estimate.

So many people come from thousands of miles away to hike it that they will push beyond their normal endurance level to achieve their goal.

I've hiked it only three times and summited twice. Interestingly, I summited on both day hikes and didn't on my overnight. I've always felt like the 30% estimate was probably accurate but now that I think about it I'm wondering if I accepted it based on the fact that it made me feel good about myself for summiting on my first attempt. The only empirical evidence I have, and I admit it's thin, is that I summited on an October day in 06 or 07 and was there alone. I started at 2am and saw several others below me on the way up (I counted nine head lamps) but they didn't summit and I didn't see them on the way down.

When I first read the 30%, I wanted to believe it. It was before I attempted the hike and I think I was just looking for an excuse if I didn't make it.

After 7/8 of us summited and it seemed like everyone we saw on the trail was on the summit or near summiting, I started to doubt the numbers.

It doesn't really matter was the percentage is, I just feeling kinda bad telling a bunch of people 30%. I've had a lot of people ask me how hard the hike is, and saying 'only 30% summit' was a pretty convenient answer.

so glad to be in that 30% but I have to say, it was about preparation, (acclimating at over 9000' for 4 days), hydrating, and doing it as an overnight. We all really enjoyed the scenery, and while we were focused on summiting, we would have turned back in a blink had the weather turned bad, particularly after Trail Camp. The section after Trail Crest would have been potential suicide in bad weather. We had perfect, sunny (but COLD) days, and it was STILL very difficult (we are women, all over 50 years old) Did it once, thankful that we summited, loved every painful step.

I agree with the general sentiment expressed that a 30% success rate is very low. It doesn't match the AMS studies and it doesn't match my experience on the mountain either. As Ken mentioned, there are gaps in the dataset. I see a glaring example with the 30,000 estimated "attempts" that is often cited.

There are 35,880 possible permits from May 1 to Nov 1 considering every trail in and out, day use and overnight users.

The published cancellations are on the Inyo website. Using Aug 2011 for example, there were only a few days of the month were one could not get a cancelled permit. (This is good news for those of you struggling for a permit reservation, it's not as hard as it seems to get a reservation if you go on short notice).

In Aug 2011, the cancellation rate for overnight permits was 16% and for day use it was 13%. Note these are actual cancellations where someone had the decency to call it in so someone else could get their permit. This does NOT include the others who just don't show up. I suspect there are at least as many people who fit that category, which would double the cancellation rates above. Aug 2011 had some unusual weather issues, but its still a popular month compared to May or Oct. when the trail is often lightly used.

If you use a call-in cancellation rate of about 15% based on Aug 2011, you get a total of about 30,000 people who "attempted" from May 1 to Nov 1. I think its a big error to disregard the people who just didn't show up and didn't bother to call in their cancellation. Likewise, the reservation cancellation data does NOT include walk-in permitting. Therefore, the estimated number of "attempts" is probably different than 30,000. There should be some actually data on the number of permits issued, and I expect it would be much less than 30,000. Ken, did this 30,000 number come from actual permits issued over a year?

As for cancellations AFTER one has the permit in hand, I think those would be very low. If someone drives to Lone Pine, has a $15 permit in hand at the Interagency office, I think chances are high they will make an "attempt." The wild card is how many people, especially women, find out for the first time when they are handed a wag bag at the permit counter and realize they will be carrying their smelly waste up and down the mountain? Maybe this last minute cancellation rate is high after all.

The best data would come from actual people on the trail, surveyed 24/7 over a period of days or weeks at the main trailhead, the old trailhead, and on the JMT headed up to Trail Crest. This would get rid of the bias from using any permit data, focus on actual user experience, and account for those who are just hiking the trail for enjoyment, not for achievement. The AMS study seems to have used this general approach and they get much higher summit rates in the 80% range.

Just checked a Jan 2004 Environmental Assessment report for replacing the old toilets. This is a very interesting report if you have opinions about wag bags. That report cited 2001 data when the current quota numbers went into effect.

"In 2001, 5,250 permits were issued (day use and overnight) and 16,194 people traveled up the main Whitney trail. In addition, parties that enter from other trailheads exit the wilderness via the Mt. Whitney Trail. In 2002, limits were placed on the exit over Trail crest in the form of a quota of 25 people a day. This is administered as an exit quota and also fills regularly in July and August."

Surely there is newer data out there from a management plan or other source. I'm thinking 20,000 total annual hikers is a better estimate than 30,000. BTW, this approach to tracking summit rates using total annual hikers is flawed from the get go unless you can also track total summits for the same year, which vary from month to month due to weather and trail conditions. The summit log is not an accurate accounting.

The most scientifically "pure" method would be to divide the number of "I made it to the Top" T-shirts sold by the number of hamburgers sold at the Portal.

Whoever Summits on Dec 31st... Bring back the log book... Who would summit and not sign that??????? Then, count.

Me. I hardly sign any registry.

minus one.

I found data on unused permits on the Whitney Zone website. I converted it to actual permits issued for the past 3 yrs (overnight and day hikers combined). Remarkably stable year over year.

2008 16,575
2009 17,390
2010 17,259

The annual quota from the Portal trailhead is 29,440 or 34,040 if you include exit quota hikers.