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Latest Post
Old Upper Low off the Oregon coast gets the Boot in Wednesday…Temperatures finally become milder Thursday as pacific air invades…..Scripps has AR a Cat 4 for Friday……Pattern next week a bit more dubious this afternoon…..
by Howard Shecktor (Mammoth Lakes)
March 7, 2023
Cats out of the bag now with Cat 4 AR headed into Central CA. Up to 10 inches of rain is possible on the west side of the Sierra Thursday Night through Sunday AM. Flood Advisories are hoisted for many areas on the west side of Sierra now. Our weather today is beautiful with some high clouds over head. There is little in the way of any wind in town. Skiers and Boarders are back scaling Sherwin Bowl. Mammoth Mt is in operation again! Weather: The Forecast includes the fact that the low off the Oregon will get kicked inland Wednesday. As it does, an area of lift will come though our area and produce some light accumulations Wednesday. Some 2 to 4 inches of snow over the upper elevations is possible Wednesday. By Thursday, a new pattern emerges. This is the beginning of the pattern forced by MJO. (Madden Julian Oscillation) (The extension of the East Asian Jet) Initially it will bring West then SW flow, milder temperatures then increase clouds in the morning. Light Snowfall could begin as early as Thursday afternoon. In that there is a lot of cold air still in place, it is not likely for the snow level to rise enough for rain/snow mix before midnight, and there is the chance it may stay snow until later Friday morning at 8000 feet. The freezing level rises to 9,000+ by 4:00AM Friday. So the Snow will be very wet Friday and there is the chance for rain or rain snow mix during the day. By Friday night, if the snow had changed to rain during Friday afternoon, it will change back to snow during the evening. Remember, the snow to water ratios will be quite variable. And if it is rain, the snow will absorb to the level of saturation. If by chance the snow on your roof becomes saturated; Saturated snow weighs about 20 lbs./cubic foot. If you do not know how much your roof can handle, get it shoveled soon by a pro! The following is an educated guess on the QPF in town for the storm; QPF = Quantitated Precipitation Forecast In Town, the Aprox QPF for Thursday afternoon until 10:00PM is about .60 inches of water. Between 10:00PM Thursday and 4:00AM Friday QPF is about 1.30 inches of water. 4:00AM Friday and 10:00AM Friday 1.00 10:00AM Friday and 4:00PM Friday 1.00 4:00PM Friday and 10:00PM Friday .75 10:00PM Friday and 4:00AM Saturday AM .50 4:00AM Saturday and Sunday morning .75 BTW: For two deterministic GFS model runs, it has been backing off on the Tuesday Storm. It shows lighter snowfall. Maybe we will get a break next week! So far the European does not agree but there is plenty of time to adjust. Keeping good thoughts! Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)
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Joined: Dec 2002
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Thanks Paul for the updates , we are getting alerts also. The flooding I think I talked about months ago , Once I noticed we (southern sierra was getting more snow than normal) the run off is always a problem . Notice each town is built near a creek, also most of the runoff will jump the collection points on the Aqueduct, next the 395 route is often near the low point of the valley or on the west side of the valley. Water is spread and crews are clearing water conveyace routes now,recall 1969 and 2017 floods and run off 2017 a slow melt season, Colder Temps and cloud cover saved the day 1969 Rain warm storm flooding . This is the concern heavy snow pack and rain warm / temperatures. Took out the trailhead bathroom , back of the store and damage up and down the sierra east side
We went up to the Portal today a shoveled just in case . Strange mix of layers on the roof and road Lower road is melting off first switchback inches of snow /sluch to 4+ feet. above the campground a deep 4+ feet some the standard very light ice crystals down deeper heavy wet layers
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Joined: Jun 2003
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3 comments...
I wonder how many avi scars we'll see this Spring/early Summer...
Who's in charge of the NWS website...makes me laugh that they've had blowing dust in the forecast for 13 miles west of Lone Pine for the last few days...
I really wish the weather would stabilize...I'd like to head up for a look, but I want fair weather...
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Joined: Dec 2002
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The NWS only has a sensor in Bishop and Ridgecrest, and the forecast for the entire area---valleys, mountains, deserts be damned---gets lumped in with Las Vegas or Visalia. There's never been an actual, reliable forecast for the Lone Pine/Whitney area since Dennis was doing it out of Independence. I put the station links on the right-hand side of the forum so people can extrapolate their own forecast. I just added the OV North & South webcams, so you'll be able to use the temps and "watch the skies" to make plans accordingly.
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 610
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3-9-2023 (From Schecktor out of Mammoth Lakes)
Quick update; AR has moved on shore over the Bay Area. It should begin to snow later this afternoon. The NWS Point Forecast for the Town of Mammoth at 8000 feet, forecasts between 2.5 to 4.5 feet by Sunday. Mammoth Mt above 9,000 feet “Point Forecast” is 6.5 to 9.5 feet by the same time. Snow level comes down Friday night into Saturday. 80% chance of up to 10 inches of water over the crest from this storm. There will be some kind of break later Sunday into Monday with another AR possible Monday Night into Tuesday. More on that this weekend. Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-) DWP just came out with there updated water totals for the Sierra. It looks like Mammoth Pass is very close to the Winter of 2017 as far as water content. about 79 inches of water Remember the Grand Daddy is the winter of 1983 with about 90 inches of water on the pass.
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Yeah, I was telling Doug my mental snow severity measurements are a bit skewed. I was in high school in Mammoth during '83. It didn't seem much different than any of the other years, just a lot more shoveling and more cars sheared in half by the plows from parking on the wrong side of the stakes. A few of the vacation homes collapsed and we had a good number of snow days. Nothing better than having school closed, then the system passed, the mountain would open mid-day, and we got to make fresh tracks everywhere. But then the earthquakes started, lol...
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Joined: Dec 2002
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System was over the crest about noon and by 4 PM got to the foothills Light rain at Olancha plus high wind dust like the old days.Started raining in the Valley Alabama Hills about 7 PM
Now them earthen quakes ,I was still surveying and went up to mammoth to do subsistence measurements ,town was a ghost town if I recall about 5000 shocks a month and new vents around 395/203 ,,outcome was to build a second escape route out of town and installed a series of motion sensors to monitor movement.Very cold and several storms ,I recall I meet the crew from LA and one of the guys keep saying. Jacket,all morning. I couldn't make sense out of it ,then the light came on these guys just got there from LA I had just came from Utah so I had all winter gear.
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Joined: Dec 2002
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Caltrans: 3/10/2023
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA]
IS CLOSED FROM PEARSONVILLE TO BISHOP (INYO CO) - DUE TO FLOODING - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
CHAINS OR SNOW TIRES ARE REQUIRED FROM 18 MI NORTH OF BISHOP (INYO CO) TO LEE VINING (MONO CO)
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Joined: Jan 2003
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If you mean 395, the fuller story is:
US 395
[IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AREA]
IS CLOSED FROM PEARSONVILLE TO BISHOP (INYO CO) - DUE TO FLOODING - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
IS CLOSED FROM MILL CREEK RD /IN MESA/ (INYO CO) TO 1.5 MI NORTH OF THE JCT OF SR 203 (MONO CO) - DUE TO FLOODING - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
IS CLOSED FROM LEE VINING TO THE JCT OF SR 182 /IN BRIDGEPORT/ (MONO CO) - DUE TO SNOW - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
IS CLOSED FROM THE JCT OF SR 108 /SONORA JUNCTION/ TO EASTSIDE LANE /IN WALKER/ (MONO CO) - DUE TO SNOW - MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE AN ALTERNATE ROUTE
CHAINS OR SNOW TIRES ARE REQUIRED FROM 4.5 MI NORTH OF THE JCT OF SR 203 (INYO CO) TO LEE VINING (MONO CO)
CHAINS OR SNOW TIRES ARE REQUIRED FROM EASTSIDE LANE /IN WALKER/ TO 20 MI SOUTH OF THE NEVADA STATE LINE (MONO CO)
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