Mt. Whitney Portal Store & Hostel Forums General Mt. Whitney Portal Store Message Board Snow prognosis mid to end June 2008?

Hi,

I am doing a 2 day trek up Mt. Whitney on 20th and 21st June 2008. I've summited before, in August 2004, and the weather was warm, with just a 20 feet strip of snow, off-trail, by Keeler Needle.

I am unaware what snow conditions to expect 3rd week of June this year, and was hoping someone experienced familiar with current conditions might want to hazard a guess.

In particular I am interested in learning:
a. Is one likely to need crampons?
b. Is there likely to be snow near the cables and, if so, is that likely to be dangerous when soggy at the end of the day?
c. Anything else to be particularly careful about that time of year?

I've heard that conditions that time are summer-like, but am certain they vary from year to year, and am hoping someone might have an opinion on what this year is like.

I have a first-timer coming along with me this time, and I feel kind of 'responsible' and want to make sure we are well prepared.

Thanks in advance!

The weather keeps changing. A week ago there were warm temperatures and snow was melting fast. Then this weekend snow came to the Sierra and Tioga Road was closed, three days after it was opened.

Keep monitoring this board for trip reports as the date approaches.

Thanks, VersatileFred. I certainly will.

Meanwhile, I am also trying to get the opinion of anyone who might be able to opine that "this year it looks like the main trail will be... in mid June", for example

Of course, I understand that the weather on those dates is still unpredictable; it's just an educated guess at estimated snow conditions that I'm after!

That's the point, Neel, things are CONSTANTLY changing. Last weekend I was on the summit in a sports bra and shorts basking in the sunshine. This weekend I was in winter gear and out in the snow at 11K. Keep checking back! Who knows? Another heat wave could come in a decimate the new powder!

-L

It sounds like you are looking for a "psychic" to make a prediction for you. As noted in the parallel thread Responsibility in Mountaineering, people need to be careful what they tell other people.

What you need is found here:

answers to future snowpack

I asked the 8 ball and the answer is: maybe

OK, so there is no such thing as a light year or heavy year for snow. I'm glad I learned that at least.

Thanks for the advice, sarcasm as well as the clairvoyance - as to whether I need a psychic or not. Nice people; be proud of yourselves. I am.

- N

You are asking about likely conditions in a time between seasons. So the others are saying, in their own way: It's impossible to predict. They are also reacting to the exasperating frequency that questions like yours are asked, such as here; 20 or more times a year, probably.

Here's my response:

a. Is one likely to need crampons? No, not likely. But I don't know your skill or experience level. So I should instead say that I think most people shouldn't need them. (Note the operative words "think," "most," and "shouldn't.")

b. Is there likely to be snow near the cables and, if so, is that likely to be dangerous when soggy at the end of the day? To answer the first question: No, not likely. But if the unlikely happens, it can freeze up and be dangerous at the end of the day.

c. Anything else to be particularly careful about that time of year? Just the usual. I did mention this is between seasons, so summer-like conditions can quickly become winter-like.

There are caveats, of course. I know what it is like up there right now. The above guesses are based on my take on average weather between now and June 20.

Keep an eye on this board as it gets closer. By the week before you leave, trip reports should be coming in regularly. A couple of days before, check the weather predictions. If no storms are expected, you should find conditions much like those most recently reported. I will be there the weekend before, as well as this coming weekend, and will certainly post reports.

Neel, all kidding aside, it is doubtful that you will get better advice than that given by BobR, who's summits number over a hundred.

Parenthetically, I admire that you want to prepare for your partner, and take responsibility for them. To that end, I think that getting your partner as independently knowledgable as possible, it the best thing that you can do. So often, a first timer in the presence of a veteran takes on the role of a guided client, and so, neglects personal preparation, and makes themselves totally dependent upon the "guide", even though the experienced person never intended that.

I'd suggest they read at least one guidebook on the mountain, cover to cover. Great bedtime reading. Maybe have them get HikealongPete's outstanding video on the trail:
whitney video

Have THEM start to read this site on a daily basis, and really master the knowledge involved.

They will be more confident, independent, and relaxed about the whole thing!

Bob R,

I am new to Whitney Portal, and gaining a lot of knowledge about being prepared for my Whitney climb. I am taking 2 friends of mine as well (all first timers). We fly in to Vegas, and will be staying at WP on Wednesday, June 11, hiking to Trail Camp on Thursday, June 12, summit and return to Trail Camp on Friday, June 13, and back to WP on Saturday, June 14.

We are bringing cramp-ons, and ice pick but we were hoping that would not have been necessary as we have very very little experience with either. All the discussion here about the use and improper use can give you second thoughts. I have read and watched a few videos on self arrest and crampon use. I thought if there was enough snow on the way up we could practice in a safe area (maybe up around Trail Camp).

If you have any tips That would be great.

Again, I've seen a lot of your comments here for the last several weeks and appreciate your knowlege.

Mike

Thanks, Bob R!

I understand the deal about the caveats --- no one knows if the weather might change suddenly 3 days before and dump a load of snow--- but the pics give a me a good idea what to expect, barring snow or inclement weather.

I had seen similar pictures of a June 2007 hike before, but had no idea if 2008 expectations could be similar. Was looking for a judgement-call from someone experienced many seasons on Whitney. Lucky for me it turned out to be you (am referring to Ken's post about your numerous summits). Your asseessment based on snow levels is a lot more scientific than the previous methods involving spheres of crystal and soothsayers suggested earlier on this board. Naturally, am not holding you to any "predictions".

Am watching weather reports and looking out for trip reports on the Message Portal as well. Being inexperienced with either crampons or ice-axe, I have opted for carrying the weight of neither, and will have no hesitation about making the call to turn back if conditions warrant. Planning to carry hiking poles, though.

Thanks for the help.

That is exactly what I like to hear. Sorry if I came on a little strong at the beginning, but the same question comes up again and again in different contexts, and we have no way of knowing if people have any winter mountaineering experience.

As noted earlier, Bob is one of the best people on the message board to give you an educated opinion. Nonetheless, he may not be the first person to respond to your question (so keep that in mind for future questions).

Hi Neel....We have plans on summiting Mt.Whitney the same weekend. In late February it looked like we would have snow late into June. March and April and most of May were very dry. We planned some hikes and everything was going fine......then a unsettled weather pattern came and took out one of our scheduled hikes.....there was just no way to predict and plan for that to happen.

So we took some scouts up to Lone Pine lake in the snow and skipped our scheduled climbing up the north side of Candlelight peak.

Like you we hope that the snow will all settle down and melt before our next trip on the 19th - 21st of June. We have snow gear but just don't want to take it. The next ten days are projected to be hot and sunny....that should help.

But in the end when the time comes, we will need to make adjustments to deal with the weather and snow conditions. We will keep track of the reports of others. They will really help. That is only being smart and being prepared. You need to be prepared for both options....take the snow gear or leave the snow gear home.

That decision will only be obvious a few weeks from now.

Thanks, Ken and VersatileFred.

Kashcraft, would appreciate knowing what you decide about taking your snow gear

Question for the experienced: Are the switchbacks likely (dudes, please, just askin'... usual weather caveats apply) to be usable June 19th weekend if weather remains the way it is? I don't think I should attempt the chute. It's only up to Trail Camp for me this time if I can't use the switchbacks.

Mike and Neel, it sounds like you are both approaching this with a good attitude. For Mike: There should be reports from this weekend that hopefully you can view before you leave home. I'll be in the general area too (but not Whitney), and may be able to say something afterwards as well.

In spite of the recent storm, the snow plot is still down in the mud. I would think that by next Friday snow will be an issue on only a couple of sections of the switchbacks between Trail Camp and Trail Crest. And certainly not between there and the summit. We'll see.

An ice ax would be a good thing to take. The snow field just below Trail Crest is the last to melt, and will surely still be there. Crossing it with an ax in your grasp, even if you aren't terribly skilled with it, would be safer than with a hiking pole.

Crampons are problematic. If, having them along, tempts a person to tackle a steep snow/ice slope with poor runout that he is not ready for, that would be a bad thing. If, however, you find yourself returning over a snowfield that has hardened in the late afternoon, they can make a dangerous traverse less so. Just step carefully, and watch that you don't snag the points on your pant legs.

I am of the persuasion that you bring such things to the trailhead. You might get some on-the-scene reports to say whether you can leave them in the car or not. If not, bring them up the mountain and go through the same thought process later.

Good luck.

Thanks, BobR! I am so glad you said that, because, as my hiking partner on this trip knows, this is what I had been suggesting the last couple of days after diligently following trip reports and scouring the web for representative pictures. Tells me I am thinking straight!

Here is a set of pics I found from Mt. Whitney June 2004. Check out pics 2 & 3 for the switchback cables. Im thinking these conditions are probably going to be realistic for us, barring severe weather or more snow. At least, I am hoping for nothing better, perhaps you can comment, BobR. http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/~kross/pictures/June_2004_Mt_Whitney/index2.html

I hadn't been planning on crampons, but wanted to get the ice ax, trekking poles... and the gaiters of course:) Your take on crampons is thought-provoking, so that's exactly what I'll do: think, and weigh the potential consequences either way.

Thanks for your good wishes!

Those pictures seems to be taken early in June of 2004. That year the snowpack ended up about 40% below average. This year it ended up about 10% below average so I would expect more snow then that.

I noticed temperatures in town for the next 10 days are sunny and warm. At 90 high 60 low, the snow on the trail should be melting and packing down well over the next two weeks.

We have traveled over snowdrifts many times in late June without crampons. Often there is a well established path through the snow. Early in the morning and late in the evening it gets a little icy making it difficult.

An interesting alternative discussed here last season was Yaktrax

http://www.google.com/products?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&channel=s&hl=en&q=yaktrax&um=1&ie=UTF-8

They are not crampon replacements, but they would provide some improved traction if it was questionable if there is enough snow to bring crampons in the first place.

Brent N is correct. I tried them once walking sideways on an icy slope. I sure didn't feel safe like when I wear my crampons.

Regarding Yaktrax http://www.google.com/products?client=fi...x&um=1&ie=UTF-8

I have used these before on my own feet and on my children's feet, and I have a couple of observations. If you are going to use them, lace them up becaause we lost one or two without noticing when we lost them. They work fairly well to prevent slippage, but I would only use them to try to avoid slipping on the ice when the fall did not involve serious harm. In other words, I trust them to keep me from falling on my backside, but I would never trust them to keep me from falling off a ledge or cliff. Don't trust your life with them. I don't think they are intended for that purpose.

Brent N

I agree with LoveTheSierras: Those pictures must have been from early in the month. I was there on 31 May 2004, and my pictures of the cables look the same.

But I think you'll have it better than that. My picture #61 from 18 May 2008 shows a little less snow than in 2004, even though it was two weeks earlier. Yes, we did get that storm a week ago, but the effect should be gone by the time of your trip.