Thanks for the link on Hypermiling. I tried all the suggestions today as I took a long road trip in the Southern Sierra. I'm sure people just hate me when I drive the speed limit. I just smile and wave.
If i may suggest something for you gas mileage.. First off as was said before check your tires. Make sure your car is serviced properly. With newer cars check your O2 sensor make sure it works properly.. It would also show the over all running of your car.. use good synthetic oil I like Amzoil or Mobil 1... There alot more thing you can do but those ones are the ones that make the most diffrence. Oh yea learn to drive slower and coast to a red light.. I checked many of those magic 20% better mileage devices and never seen one work.. I used to run an auto shop for 22 years, up until 2 months ago..
on the gas improvement devices check out this months Consumer Reports magazine page 48 gas saving gadets don't work...
On july 9th I will be coming up to the portal with my 96 ford p/u average on highway 16-18 city 11-12 in 09 I will be geeting a Hyundai Elantra or ford focus but keeping my p/u its paid for...mark
Hey Doug pops (bob aguilar) and I are coming up next month, get ready for him to talk your ear off, kick him out of the store when you had enough ..mark
Mark, my '95 150 USED to get 18 on the road, not now with 165,000 miles on it. Mileage tips: 1. Remove all unnecessary weight 2. Make sure engine in top shape; i.e., good plugs, air cleaner, proper coolant, proper oil, Oxygen sensors (my truck has 2 of the expensive buggers), properly adjusted and good shape serpentine belt (just had to replace tension and idler pulleys on mine, caused belt to slip when put on A/C) 3. Inflate tires to max. p.s.i. marked on side of tire/NOT what the car mfg. recs. for good ride 4. Look at exit of tail pipe, should be clean or a bit brownish tan, NOT sooty looking--->needs attn. 5. Drive 55 or so 6. Use the cruise if you have it 7. Keep windows up & use the A/C 8. Avoid roof racks if possible 9. Keep a cushion of room between you and next vehicle 10. Anticipate actions FAR AHEAD, 11. You burn gas to gain speed, you turn that energy into HEAT WHEN YOU APPLY YOUR BRAKES. 12. Do everything slowly and gradually, drive like there is an egg on the accelerator pedal 13. Do NOT coast downhill in neutral if you have an automatic transmission, as this will not keep the auto. trans FLUID circulating through the cooler and IT WILL HEAT UP !!! 14. Calculate your M.P.G. using the people factor, a lone driver getting 30 mpg is put to shame by a SUV getting 15 and hauling 6 people.
Last edited by Passinthru; 06/05/0802:39 PM. Reason: 0.14000000000000001332267629550187848508358001708984375
When I get a little money, I buy books; and if any is left I buy food and clothes. Erasmus
The world is not running out of oil, it's a myth. OPEC is helping to keep this myth going by adjusting their output to keep prices high.
An oil reserve is an estimate of what will be produced with the current technique, knowledge and price at the time. When it becomes to costly to produce oil from a reserve it's shut down. A good example would be the reserves in CA that have been shut down for a long time. Because of the recent rise in the price of a barrel of oil, old "reserves" or wells are being brought on line again because it's more profitable to pump oil out of them.
Go to this link if you want to read more on the "earth is running out of oil myth".
There were a couple of posts regarding China and India's increase in energy consumption. The following link (I do not know how accurate their numbers are)
can aid in figuring out what the demand for energy would be if they (and other low consumers) were to "achieve" the same consumption per capita of U.S. and other high energy consumers.
That is the most bazaar, unadulterated head-in-the-sand BS I have seen in a long time. Everything in this world is finite. When is the last time you saw a real "tin" can?
The world is not running out of oil, it's a myth. OPEC is helping to keep this myth going by adjusting their output to keep prices high.
We have been running out of oil since we first started pumping it. It is a non-renewable resource. But it is true that not everyone agrees that oil production has peaked. However, when Hubbert produced his analysis in 1957, people didn't believe him. No matter how often his approach has worked, people still deny it the next time. Time will tell.
Originally Posted By Hiiker
When it becomes to costly to produce oil from a reserve it's shut down. A good example would be the reserves in CA that have been shut down for a long time. Because of the recent rise in the price of a barrel of oil, old "reserves" or wells are being brought on line again because it's more profitable to pump oil out of them.
This is consistent with my message. Demand exceeds supply and prices go up -- basic economics. The high prices make it economical to squeeze out some of the hard to extract oil that we know is down there. That oil is part of the discoveries that peaked in the late 1960s worldwide, and in the mid-1930s in the US. The point is that we have used half of the world's known oil and overall production has peaked. That will keep prices high in the long run, independent of what speculation does in the short run.
The MIT article you cited is a sign of the amount of attention this issue is getting in academia. I have heard a number of excellent talks on this general subject over the past few years. One was by Prof. Dave Rutledge of Caltech. He has an alternative approach to analyzing resource supplies, which he has applied to many situations. His conclusions on oil are consistent with what I said earlier. What is interesting is htat he argues that there is a lot less coal than people think. The details are beyond the scope of this post, but is was interesting to see his analysis of past cases. It tracks the history of the British coal industry (which is very near its end) quite well. One point is makes is that claimed reserves never went down until very near the end. In other words, people believed that there was plenty of coal in the ground until it was almost gone. As Rutledge puts it, no one has ever been fired for overestimating resources (to the government or to a private employer).
The fella that wrote that article seems to admit that he doesn't know the extent of oil reserves yet he seems to say that the world is not running out of oil. Here's an excerpt from it,
"To predict ultimate reserves, we need an accurate prediction of future science and technology. To know ultimate reserves, we must first have ultimate knowledge. Nobody knows this, and nobody should pretend to know."
When he says nobody knows, I presume he is including himself, so how can he know that it is a myth that the world is running out of oil?.
Economists like to say that shortages of oil (or any resource) drive up prices, which leads to increased exploration and new supplies. That is all very sensible, but it ignores even the possibility of natural limits. It also fails to account for the fact that the all time highest rate of oil discovery in the US occurred during the Great Depression. When economists think that the laws of economics overrule the laws of nature, they are practicing religion, not science (even "the dismal science").
The development of most non-renewable resources follows, at least approximately, a recognizable time dependence. Knowing the total quantity extracted and the rate of extraction for a sufficient time allows straightforward extrapolation to the ultimate quantity of the resource that is available. This allows one to predict reserves remarkably well (i.e., it has worked in many cases). [I edited this last paragraph later because it was over the top on any nerdiness scale.]
That is the most bazaar, unadulterated head-in-the-sand BS I have seen in a long time. Everything in this world is finite. When is the last time you saw a real "tin" can?
Who care if the world is running out or oil or not.
The fact is that it costs more and we are buying it with devalued dollars. The net effect, we are running out of money for gas.
I don't think there is a gas or crude oil shortage at this time. Here are a couple of articles from a BusinessWeek columnist that shares this counterpoint:
I think this is just another bubble, a commodities bubble fueled by aggressive speculation and a lower dollar.
Crude oil prices per barrel were around $30 in 2004, doubled to $60 in 2005, stayed that way till 2007 and recently within a few months doubled again to more than $120. Now the hype is that it will go to $150 or even $200. This kind of exponential price growth and hysteria is classic bubble mentality. It's just not rational. It's very similar to the internet stock bubble and the housing bubble. Commodities happen to be the flavor of the month for hedge funds and investment banks.
Of course, I could be wrong and we really are pass the tipping point where demand for oil exceeds supply and/or production rate. If that is true then prices will skyrocket at the current exponential rate with no limit in sight. This would eventually crash the global economy pretty quickly. I sure hope I'm not wrong.
We have gone from the cheapest gasoling in history in 1999 to the most expensive since WWI in 2008. There are two separate issues here.
People can speculate in oil so they do it. That appears to be happening in a big way, driving prices up. Bubbles burst, which would cause prices to fall.
The other issue is the peak in world oil production. It has to happen sometime and there is considerable evidence that it has happened or will very soon. For now, we can say with certainty that production has not been increasing in recent years to meet rapidly increasing demand. That is also driving prices up. When oil production peaks, the only thing that can hold prices down will be reduction in demand.
In answer to the question "who cares?"... Who doesn't? Our entire industrial civilization has been built on cheap oil for wall over a century. We have huge fleets of ships, planes, trains, trucks, and cars that depend on it. Modern agriculture depends on it -- we don't know how to feed 6 billion + people without it. Etc. Everyone is affected by large, long term increases in the price of oil. How many trips to the Sierra one can take is the tip of the iceberg.
I don't think there is a gas or crude oil shortage at this time. Here are a couple of articles from a BusinessWeek columnist that shares this counterpoint:
I think this is just another bubble, a commodities bubble fueled by aggressive speculation and a lower dollar.
If there was a gasoline shortage we'd be waiting in long lines at the gas station, so you're right on that account. However...
Although those two articles may seem reasonable at first glance, the author appears to ignore the most important point of all. The rise of oil and gas prices are being driven by what the market thinks will be the future supply and demand for oil and gasoline, not the current status. Apparently a lot of investors believe that there is at least a reasonable possibility that the world oil supply has peaked and that demand will be high compared to supply in the coming years, so the price of oil goes up.
It might be a price bubble that will burst like the dot.com situation in the stock market in 2001. On the other hand, there may be a real peak in world oil supply, or at least investors may believe in the peak for years to come, and the prices may hold over the long term, or even go higher. We don't know.
This video seems to describe well some of the ideas out there which may or may not be correct :
The rise of oil and gas prices are being driven by what the market thinks will be the future supply and demand for oil and gasoline, not the current status. Apparently a lot of investors believe that there is at least a reasonable possibility that the world oil supply has peaked and is headed down in the coming years, so the price of oil goes up.
Bob, this is not necessarily true. Investments aren't always made based on fundamentals. They are also made based on technical indicators like price actions, volume, momentum, etc. for short term trades. In 2000, about $9 billion was invested in oil futures. Today that number is $250 billion. With that much money being poured into something, the price is going to go up.
Originally Posted By AlanK
For now, we can say with certainty that production has not been increasing in recent years to meet rapidly increasing demand.
I keep hearing people say this but I feel like people are just repeating the hype. I know the Energy Secretary says that too, but I don't believe it. Even he admits that we don't truly know what some countries are doing because they don't fully disclose their production and consumption data.
Quote:
Lack of transparency in the oil market has also been cited as a possible cause of higher prices. Bodman said that while the United States and host Japan have been "diligent" in disclosing production and consumption data, some other countries need to do more.
Proponents of such transparency, including the IEA, say greater disclosure of accurate statistics helps markets set prices that more precisely reflect supply and demand. Underreporting of production, for instance, can drive prices higher as traders think supply is lower than it actually is.
The brief research that I did, based on the 2007 International Energy Outlook Report by the Energy Information Administration, says that world liquids consumption is expected to increase from 83 million barrels per day in 2004 to 118 million barrels per day in 2030. Production in 2030 is expected to meet demand with 65% of the increased to come from OPEC countries. As far as I can tell, it mentions nothing about a gap between production and demand.
The report also says that historically, estimates of world oil reserves have generally trended upward. As of Jan 1, 2007, proved oil reserves as reported by Oil & Gas Journal were estimated at 1.317 trillion barrels (about a 30 year supply if consumption was 118 million barrels a day). This is about 2% higher than the 2006 estimate. I don't doubt that oil production will peak at some point but I don't think the current price action is an indicator of that. I think this is just mass hysteria or if you're into conspiracy theories, an orchestrated campaign to profit from a commodities bubble.
Tim, You're right about there being all sorts of trading effects on the price of oil. The other stuff like the govt report you were looking at has problems with credibility regarding oil production projections that you alluded to in your remarks about the energy secretary, and the report's oil price projections haven't gotten off to a very good start. There's something happening here but we don't know what it is.
The video referenced above by Bob K begins with a clip of a gas station owner putting up a sign saying something like "Out of gas today." This was during the 1970s oil crisis that many posters here may remember. They also may remember the hours-long lines to get gas and the rationing based on whether your license plate ended in an even or odd number.
What they may not remember so clearly is that the day after price controls were lifted, the gas shortage ended. The lines disappeared. You could get all the gas you wanted, at a price not much higher than it had been before the crisis. The market took care of things quite nicely.
Part of the current "crisis" is self-induced--for example, by our putting certain areas, such as our coasts, off limits to new drilling. Part is a function of other countries vying for oil: more buyers going after, more or less, the same amount of oil.
But the amount of oil won't stay static. As the price of a barrel rises, it becomes profitable to go back to old wells and to extract oil from places where, when oil brought only $40 a barrel, no profit could be made. As this new oil becomes available, the overall supply increases, and prices decline.
Then, as several have said, we must consider the speculation bubble, which no doubt is the largest part of the present run-up in prices, the run-up being quite out of proportion to the supply/demand situation. This bubble too will pop (tulips, anyone?), and we'll reach a level of equilibrium where a barrel is less than it is today but, probably, more expensive than it has been in recent decades.
Whatever happens, I'm not letting it bother me. I head off tomorrow for my first Sierra hike of the season, no matter what the price may be at the pump.
tip: Inflate your tires to the max listed on the tire itself, the ride may be a little rougher than your test drive, but the gas mileage will increase!
My understanding is the improvement in mileage is small (higher pressure tires), while the ability of your tires to grip the road (as designed) is compromised.
The brief research that I did, based on the 2007 International Energy Outlook Report by the Energy Information Administration, says that world liquids consumption is expected to increase from 83 million barrels per day in 2004 to 118 million barrels per day in 2030. Production in 2030 is expected to meet demand with 65% of the increased to come from OPEC countries. As far as I can tell, it mentions nothing about a gap between production and demand.
Production data for the last few decades show a linear increase from 1980 until the early 2000s. Extrapolate that to 2030 gives an estimate of a little over 100 million barrels per day. The estimate of 118 million is very optimistic, but is is still based on a simple extrapolation of recent trends. Such extrapolations were trotted out when Hubbert, back in 1957, correctly predicted the peak in US oil production for 1970. They were wrong then. Time will tell if they're right now. But such extrapolations eventually break down.
Originally Posted By Tim L
The report also says that historically, estimates of world oil reserves have generally trended upward. As of Jan 1, 2007, proved oil reserves as reported by Oil & Gas Journal were estimated at 1.317 trillion barrels (about a 30 year supply if consumption was 118 million barrels a day). This is about 2% higher than the 2006 estimate. I don't doubt that oil production will peak at some point but I don't think the current price action is an indicator of that.
I am not arguing that current price action indicates a peak in production. What indicates a peak is that production is not increasing and that the worldwide rate of discovery peaked 40 years ago.
No one thinks we're about to suddenly run out of oil. Even the peak oil proponents agree that there are well over a trillion barrels still in the ground. The figures you cited indicate that, based on all the oil we know about with confidence, we have 30 years' worth left at current consumption rates. That's not much! And it's a far cry from the hundreds of years some people talk about. The real question is how production will do over the coming decades.
..mark 